Exchange rates and inflation: where money holds its value
Exchange rate to the dollar, inflation over recent years, the IMF forecast and a short “why” for the eight countries in the Atlas, all on one page. The figures update automatically; the commentary is written by the editors.
Inflation is the IMF annual average (WEO, April 2026); 2026+ is a forecast. Exchange rates are official as of 30 Sep 2026; Argentina also shows the “blue” rate. This is not investment advice.
Inflation by year, %
The grey area is the IMF forecast.
Argentina10%
Uruguay5%
Paraguay4%
Colombia3%
Brazil3%
Chile3%
Mexico3%
Peru2%
The figure next to each country is the IMF forecast for 2028.
Logarithmic scale, otherwise Argentina would flatten everyone else.
In numbers
Average annual inflation, %. Grey bars are the IMF forecast.
Country
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
🇦🇷Argentina
72.4
133.5
219.9
41.9
30.4
15.7
9.6
🇧🇷Brazil
9.3
4.6
4.4
5.0
4.0
3.4
3.0
🇨🇱Chile
11.6
7.6
3.9
4.2
2.9
3.3
3.0
🇺🇾Uruguay
9.1
5.9
4.8
4.7
4.0
4.5
4.5
🇵🇾Paraguay
9.8
4.6
3.8
4.1
3.3
3.5
3.5
🇲🇽Mexico
7.9
5.5
4.7
3.8
3.9
3.4
3.0
🇨🇴Colombia
10.2
11.7
6.6
5.1
5.9
5.2
3.4
🇵🇪Peru
7.9
6.3
2.4
1.5
2.5
1.8
2.0
🇧🇴Bolivia
1.7
2.6
5.1
19.5
20.7
—
—
🇻🇪Venezuela
186.5
337.5
49.4
252.0
387.4
94.4
—
Bolivia and Venezuela are shown for reference and are not in the Atlas.
By country
Exchange rate, inflation and forecast, and why the figures look this way.
🇦🇷
Argentina
ARS · peso
Inflation 2025
41.9%
Exchange rate to USD
1,524
Street “blue” rate, +2% vs official
1,560
Monthly inflation, August 2026
1.7%
IMF forecast 2026 → 2027
30.4% ↓ 15.7%
Why it is this way
Decades of budget deficits financed by printing money, plus exchange-rate controls (“cepo”) alongside a parallel “blue” dollar. The peak came in 2023–2024: prices rose 200% a year. Since December 2023, Milei’s government has sharply cut spending, moved the budget into surplus and devalued the peso — and inflation has been falling.
What to expect
The IMF expects inflation to slow to ~30% in 2026 and ~16% in 2027 — if the surplus holds and the exchange rate stays within its band. Risks: depleted reserves and elections. For anyone moving there: prices in pesos keep rising, but dollar prices rise more slowly; budget in dollars.
🇧🇷
Brazil
BRL · real
Inflation 2025
5.0%
Exchange rate to USD
5.22
IMF forecast 2026 → 2027
4.0% ↓ 3.4%
Why it is this way
The 1994 Real Plan ended the hyperinflation of the 1980s–90s; since 1999 the central bank has been independent, with a 3% target. Inflation holds at 4–5% because of the budget deficit and a weak real; the central bank fights it with an interest rate of about 15% — one of the highest in the world.
What to expect
IMF: 4% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027. The main risk is the budget: the market does not believe in spending discipline, hence the expensive credit. Prices are stable; mortgages and loans are very expensive.
🇨🇱
Chile
CLP · peso
Inflation 2025
4.2%
Exchange rate to USD
967
IMF forecast 2026 → 2027
2.9% ↑ 3.3%
Why it is this way
The most predictable central bank in the region, with a 3% target. The 2022 spike (11.6%) came from pandemic payouts and early withdrawals of pension savings, which overheated demand. Interest rates brought it back to normal within two years.
What to expect
IMF: 2.9% in 2026, ~3% after that. Chile is the benchmark for price stability in the region, but also the most expensive of its neighbors.
🇺🇾
Uruguay
UYU · peso
Inflation 2025
4.7%
Exchange rate to USD
40.1
IMF forecast 2026 → 2027
4.0% ↑ 4.5%
Why it is this way
For thirty years inflation sat at 7–9%: wages and rents were tied to past inflation and kept reproducing it. Since 2023, the central bank has held its 4.5% target for the first time — helped by a high interest rate and a strong peso.
What to expect
IMF: 4–4.5% for years to come. Stable, but expensive: a strong currency makes Uruguay one of the costliest places in the region in dollar terms.
🇵🇾
Paraguay
PYG · guaraní
Inflation 2025
4.1%
Exchange rate to USD
5,891
IMF forecast 2026 → 2027
3.3% ↑ 3.5%
Why it is this way
The guaraní is the oldest currency in South America that has never been reissued: no redenominations, no defaults. Low government debt, a central bank target of 3.5%, and an economy built on soy exports and Itaipú energy.
What to expect
IMF: 3.3–3.5%. Boring in a good way: prices are predictable and the country is cheap. Risk: droughts, which exports depend on.
🇲🇽
Mexico
MXN · peso
Inflation 2025
3.8%
Exchange rate to USD
18
IMF forecast 2026 → 2027
3.9% ↓ 3.4%
Why it is this way
The central bank targets 3% ±1, and policy has been tight since the 1994 crisis. The 2022 peak was 7.9% (global inflation), followed by a gradual decline; interest rates remain high.
What to expect
IMF: ~3.9% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027. The key variable is trade with the US and tariffs: both the peso and prices depend on them.
🇨🇴
Colombia
COP · peso
Inflation 2025
5.1%
Exchange rate to USD
3,367
IMF forecast 2026 → 2027
5.9% ↓ 5.2%
Why it is this way
The 2023 peak was 11.7%: food prices, the end of fuel subsidies and a weak peso. The decline is slow: the minimum wage is indexed to past inflation and drags prices along with it.
What to expect
IMF: 5.9% in 2026, 5.2% in 2027 — above the 3% target for several more years. Credit is expensive and the peso is volatile.
🇵🇪
Peru
PEN · sol
Inflation 2025
1.5%
Exchange rate to USD
3.44
IMF forecast 2026 → 2027
2.5% ↓ 1.8%
Why it is this way
The lowest inflation in the region: a 2% target, a central bank independent since 2002, a partly dollarized economy and a strong sol. The hyperinflation of 1990 (7,500%) is remembered and has not been repeated.
What to expect
IMF: 1.5–2.5%. Prices behave as in a developed country; the risk is political instability, but so far it is not putting pressure on prices.